As we have mentioned previously, the latter part of last year and the beginning of this one have seen the gold market take on a life of it's own, irrespective of the gyrations in other markets. This is probably an indication of the mainstream beginning to recognise abnormal credit conditions and seeking safety.
The gold price has leapt up towards the phsycological $1,000 an ounce level, that it appears destined to touch, if not surpass, during 2008. Over the next few weeks, if the price sustains levels above $920 - $930, we could see a pause then a natural reaction to the $850 level. We would advocate a holding position at the current price as there can be no doubt that this market is in a strong bull phase.
Sunday, 13 January 2008
Tuesday, 1 January 2008
Gold Dec & Year Close
Performance
Gold ($/ounce) : 838 +31% p.a. (639)
Silver ($/ounce) Yr : 14.77 +18% p.a. (12.52)
Silver Fund (Dec) : +31%
FTSE 100 Year End : 6457 +3.8% p.a. (6220)
FTSE 100 Fund (Dec) : +92%
WOW ! Any year where an underlying market rises in excess of 30% is truly exceptional. The majority of the gains came in the latter part of the year, when the turmoil hit the equity markets. This is a departure from recent times when all markets have risen and fallen in sync. It is the first serious decoupling and demonstrates a move to safety by the 'clever' money, who appreciate that a 4 1/2 year equity disco has just put on the last slow dance and called last orders.
We suspect that there could be trouble for the equity market in the first part of the new year, 'chucking out' out time at the disco may cause a few scuffles before eveyone realises that there is an after hours party in full swing just down the road in 'Gold Street'.
It would not be unreasonable then for a mini double-top in the gold price at 850, with a pull back to the 760 - 780 level. However a blast through the 850 level means the party goers have arrived armed with the duty free !
Gold ($/ounce) : 838 +31% p.a. (639)
Silver ($/ounce) Yr : 14.77 +18% p.a. (12.52)
Silver Fund (Dec) : +31%
FTSE 100 Year End : 6457 +3.8% p.a. (6220)
FTSE 100 Fund (Dec) : +92%
WOW ! Any year where an underlying market rises in excess of 30% is truly exceptional. The majority of the gains came in the latter part of the year, when the turmoil hit the equity markets. This is a departure from recent times when all markets have risen and fallen in sync. It is the first serious decoupling and demonstrates a move to safety by the 'clever' money, who appreciate that a 4 1/2 year equity disco has just put on the last slow dance and called last orders.
We suspect that there could be trouble for the equity market in the first part of the new year, 'chucking out' out time at the disco may cause a few scuffles before eveyone realises that there is an after hours party in full swing just down the road in 'Gold Street'.
It would not be unreasonable then for a mini double-top in the gold price at 850, with a pull back to the 760 - 780 level. However a blast through the 850 level means the party goers have arrived armed with the duty free !
Saturday, 15 December 2007
Gold-i-Locks
The Gold Train left it's last station in September at $682. (Incidentally silver is still at this station, but the 'All Aboard' call has just been made, as mentioned at The Silvers Wizard).
Over the last six weeks there has been a little consolidation, but we feel this is only a slowing of the train before the speed picks up again. The position that was locked in at the end of August, at about $660, has run to a 22% gain in 5 months and could weather a very small profit-take, but really there should be clear track ahead after the latest Fed sponsored liquidity injection.
Over the last six weeks there has been a little consolidation, but we feel this is only a slowing of the train before the speed picks up again. The position that was locked in at the end of August, at about $660, has run to a 22% gain in 5 months and could weather a very small profit-take, but really there should be clear track ahead after the latest Fed sponsored liquidity injection.
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